Budapest is a political citadel for the opposition parties. Any electoral map from the last decade will reveal the hole in the middle of the orange landscape - the capital. On one hand, Budapest is becoming more "oppositional", if we consider that since 2019 the city has had an opposition mayor and a majority in the city assembly, and in the 2022 parliamentary elections the opposition won several constituencies from the governing parties; on the other hand, in 2022 the opposition's list performance in Budapest was below that of 2018, so in some respects we can talk about a decline. Among the opposition parties and candidates, the competition for Budapest is also the most intense, as a candidacy in Budapest has the best chance winning a seat. This is why it is important to assess the balance of power between parties and mayoral candidates in Budapest in the run-up to the 2024 double elections, and to map voters' expectations of opposition politics. That's what we tried to do in the latest research from the Republikon Institute.
Key findings:
Less than 1/3 of the residents in Budapest would vote for the governing parties on the general elections. At the same time the left-liberal parties do better than their nationwide support. Right-wing parties like Jobbik and Mi Hazánk are less popular in the capital.
Currently Gergely Karácsony would win the seat of the Mayor of Budapest. 50% of the party voters would vote for him. If Alexandra Szentkirályi would run for the office 43% of party voters would support her. The former Deputy Mayor of Budapest has some voter surplus beyond the governing party voters.
Although there is no final agreement between the opposition parties, the opposition voters in Budapest clearly want the parties to cooperate. They do not differentiate between the EP and municipal elections this respect. Two thirdsof opposition voters expect cooperation from the parties in both elections.
86% of opposition respondents want that the incumbent mayors would re-run in their districts.
Two thirds of the opposition in the capital want to see the smaller parties in the opposition cooperation.
You can read the full analysis here.