"The main question is not who will be the next mayor, but with whom and what compromises will he or she have to make in order to ensure the functioning of the capital's assembly." - hvg360 reported on Republikon's latest analysis.
The 2024 municipal elections in Budapest were already surrounded by a number of conflicts at the beginning of the year. Opposition parties running together in 2019 have split into several factions, sparking heated political debates in several districts over candidate selection and cooperation. With changes in the electoral system over the past six months, a shift in the political climate and the emergence of new actors, we are facing the most difficult election to predict in decades. This is particularly true in the capital, where even in recent weeks there have been substantial developments with the entry of the Tisza Party on the list of the Budapest City Assembly. The two most important questions for the governability of the capital are who will win the election of the Lord Mayor and how the Municipal Assembly will be structured. Our analysis looks at these two issues, i.e. the candidates for mayor, their political character and campaign, and the possible composition of the Municipal Assembly.
Main findings of the analysis:
• Of the three candidates for mayor, Gergely Karácsony has the best chance of being re-elected.
• The withdrawal of Alexandra Szentkirályi or Dávid Vitézy might not help to replace Karácsony.
• The new electoral system could make the Budapest Assembly even more diverse, with at least four and up to seven lists of candidates.
• Whoever wins the mayoral election, the winner will face a serious challenge to build a stable coalition in the Assembly.
• Given the coalition constraints, the cooperation of Karácsony and Vitézy, who have similar political ideas, can be expected.
• Peter Magyar's declared aim is to make the TISZA Party the tongue of the balance, without them no one can create an Assembly majority.
• In the 2024-2029 cycle, the decision-making processes will be longer, and their resolution will only be possible through compromises
Read the full analysis at the link below!