On 12 June 2024, the Republikon Institute organised a conference where invited experts discussed the 9 June elections, with a special focus on the European Parliament elections. The focus was on the new composition of the EP, the challenges of the next EU cycle and the election results of Hungarian parties. The event was moderated by Zoltán Ranschburg, senior analyst at the Republikon Institute.
Opening
Gábor Horn, chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Republikon Foundation welcomes the invited guests and the audience. He explains that many people thought around January that the election campaign would be completely uninteresting. He adds that the situation in domestic politics has changed since then, and the stakes in the EU elections were different, so there is much to talk about at the event.
Analyst discussion:
Ágoston Sámuel Mráz, head of the Nézőpont Institute, thinks that there were no real surprises in the EP elections; the latest polls were very similar to the final result, with the Tisza Party polling at around 25%, but they did better, so he thinks it is worth reacting to that. He explains this by saying that he believes that the Kutya Party voters ended up being Tisza voters. He then goes on to say that the reason why Péter Magyar's party could be strong in the cities with county rights is that the left has always been strong in these municipalities, and the Tisza Party is the party of the non-DK left. He adds that if there had been a parliamentary election, Fidesz-KDNP would have won two thirds of the votes. He thinks that if Le Pen and Meloni had joined forces, they would have been the second largest faction. He points out that the NATO Secretary General recently visited Hungary, which resulted in an exception for the country: Hungary does not veto NATO's Ukraine policy, but it is not subject to it. He expects that Fidesz will soon be able to join the ECR, as he believes that a compromise has been reached on the issue of the war. According to Mráz, if Péter Magyar accepts the EPP's position on the war, he will face a credibility deficit. He highlights war and industrial policy as future challenges for the EU.
According to Tibor Závecz, founder of Závecz Research, the two elections are two different areas and contexts, and the issue was not about gaining power. A parliamentary election is different. In his opinion, the movements were well tracked in opinion polls. He adds that not everything can be calculated, and that psychological aspects such as enthusiasm and paralysis are also at play. He also thinks that Péter Magyar has brought out an old mechanism that is effective: direct contact with the politician. In addition, Fidesz has also mobilised successfully. On the European party families, he says that the centre parties and Renew are still in the majority. The new polar narrative will not materialise, in his view. Europe's problems are different, and the problem of Russian aggression is dominant today. The political dimension of the EU family of parties is fluid, with many changes. He says that Viktor Orbán may have thought that he had outgrown Hungarian domestic politics and started to focus on Europe, but now he needs to bring the focus back. He adds that the narrative of EU occupation is a failure. He sees war, energy security and the integration of EU candidates as the EU's challenges for the next term.
Balázs Böcskei, the strategic director of Idea Institute, explains that there has been a lot of speculation about what to expect based on the Fidesz decline numbers. He was surprised by the withdrawal of Alexandra Szentkirályi and the close Vitézy-Karácsony result. He thought that it would become a Fidesz - non-Fidesz decision in an anti-Orbán city, but these cannot be modelled in advance. He explains that the big things are not decided in the composition of the EP. He believes that the media's influence on the issues is very important. On the question of Péter Magyar's entry, he says that he thinks the question is whether factional discipline will work for them. On the challenges facing the EU, he explains that there is currently a rhetoric on the war in favour of restoring Ukraine's integrity, but that the same actors are also more moderate in their domestic politics. He points out that European public opinion on the war has taken a distanced stance compared to the period when the conflict began.
Andrea Virág, director of strategy at Republikon Institute, notes that six months ago she thought the campaign would be boring, with a confident Fidesz victory. She used to think that the interesting thing on the opposition side would be which way this election would tilt the DK-Momentum battle for opposition hegemony. The European far-right is unlikely to play a very dominant role, despite their increased seats. She says Fidesz could not join either ECR or ID, and there are problems with both versions. On many issues there is no consensus on the right. She believes that which actor joins which EU party family is important in domestic politics. On Manfred Weber's visit, she says that whatever the outcome of the negotiations, it is a success for Péter Magyar to negotiate with him, as five years ago the leader of the European People's Party met Viktor Orbán. She stresses that the question is how the EU will use instruments such as the rule of law mechanism in the future. She adds that Hungary has always had a partner, Poland, in these procedures, but since the change of government in Poland, Hungary has been alone in this. So it is an interesting question how the next EU leadership will approach these instruments.
Co-funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
