On 24 September, Republikon Institute held its event "Renew or patriotism - where is Europe going next?" to discuss the current political situation in Europe, focusing on the rise of far-right movements, populism, and the outcomes of the 2024 European Parliament elections. Experts and politicians from Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Austria were invited to share their perspectives on the election results in their respective countries and the broader implications for the European Union. The event was moderated by Márton Schlanger, a researcher at the Republikon Institute.
Opening Remarks
The conference began with an introduction by Gábor Horn, Chairman of the Board of Trustees of Republikon Institute. Horn mentioned that he is very happy to open the first conference this autumn after a summer that politically was different than what we were used to in the last decades. Summers are no longer “boring” without anything happening from political points of view, especially since we had European Parliament elections in June. He highlighted the significance of the 2024 European Parliament elections, noting that this year’s election results reflect growing political polarization and the increasing presence of far-right and populist parties in many European countries. He emphasized that these developments would have long-lasting consequences for European integration, democracy, and governance in the upcoming EU legislative term.
Piotr Beniuszys (Sociologist and political scientist, journalist, and editor of Polish Liberté!) remarked that the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party remains a dominant force in Poland despite their electoral loss. According to Beniuszys, Poland recently held parliamentary elections, which saw an exceptionally high voter turnout of 75%, the highest in Polish democratic history. He explained that this election marked the first of three crucial elections in one year, with regional and EU elections to follow. Despite the high voter turnout, the far-right Konfederacja party managed to mobilize significant support by focusing on EU-related issues, which resonated more with their base than domestic ones.
Vendula Kazlauskas (Project manager and research fellow at the Association for International Affairs (AMO): offered insights into the Czech Republic’s recent political developments, focusing on the outcomes of the European elections and the rise of anti-EU sentiment. She explained that voter turnout in the Czech Republic was higher than in previous EU elections, but still only reached around 36.5%. However, those who did participate in the vote were largely against the European Union, with anti-EU parties winning significant support. Kazlauskas pointed out that the Motorists for Themselves party (AUTO), which captured around 10% of the vote, is led by a charismatic and controversial figure who appeals to voters in a manner similar to celebrity influencers like Andrew Tate. The dominance of anti-EU parties is a key concern in the Czech Republic, where populist parties have capitalized on dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Kazlauskas emphasized that 74% of the Czech Republic’s political parties in the European Parliament are now affiliated with anti-EU factions, the highest proportion within the EU. This shift has resulted in poor outcomes for the traditionally liberal parties, including the Mayors Coalition and the Pirate Party, who fared badly in the EU elections.
Branislav Vančo, Representative of Progressive Slovakia in the Slovakian National Council Slovakia discussed Slovakia’s unique position within the context of rising populism in Central Europe. He highlighted the success of the Progressive Slovakia party in the EU elections, which garnered a significant portion of the vote due to its clear pro-EU stance. According to Vančo, the party has faced criticism for being too openly pro-European, but their strong performance in the elections—earning around 28% of the vote—indicates growing public support for maintaining Slovakia’s role within the EU.
Silvia Nadjivan, senior researcher of NEOS Lab provided a detailed analysis of Austria’s political dynamics, particularly the success of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) in the 2024 European elections. Nadjivan pointed out that Austria lacks a strong liberal tradition, with the NEOS party only managing to secure 10% of the vote, while the FPÖ emerged as the dominant political force. She attributed the FPÖ’s rise to its ability to tap into populist fears about immigration, economic instability, and the European Union. Nadjivan also highlighted the troubling connections between the FPÖ and Russian disinformation efforts, noting that the party has been accused of participating in hybrid warfare aimed at undermining liberal democracy. Despite these concerns, Nadjivan mentioned that the FPÖ is projected to win Austria’s next parliamentary elections, making it likely that Austria will continue on a path toward populism in the near future.
Ranschburg Zoltán, senior analyst at Republikon Insitute focused on Hungary’s shifting political landscape following the European elections. He remarked that while Fidesz won 45% of the vote, this was the party’s worst performance in a European Parliament election, and much of its decline can be attributed to the rise of a new political force, the Tisza Party. Ranschburg explained that the Tisza Party emerged from seemingly nowhere and quickly garnered 30% of the vote, reshaping the political balance in Hungary. Ranschburg pointed out that the political left and center have been effectively sidelined in Hungary, with the electoral coalition of the Democratic Coalition (DK), MSZP, and Párbeszéd barely passing the electoral threshold. The liberal Momentum party, which once held promise, was one of the biggest losers, dropping from 10% to 3% and losing its place in the Budapest council. He emphasized that this shift has left many Hungarian voters without proper representation, as left-wing and liberal voters are now gravitating toward the most powerful opposition force available, which currently appears to be the Tisza Party.
Domestic Panel
The central topic of the domestic panel at the September 24, 2024, conference was evaluating the 2024 European Parliament election results and analyzing the Hungarian political landscape. The invited panelists, including János Herman (former State Secretary, former NATO Ambassador), István Szent-Iványi (former Member of the European Parliament), Zsolt Kerner (journalist), and Györgyi Kocsis (journalist, former president of the Hungarian Europe Society), discussed the rise of the Tisza Party, the position of Fidesz within the European Union, and the challenges facing Hungary. The debate also focused on the potential impact of the Tisza Party's European People's Party (EPP) membership, Fidesz's influence in the Patriots for Europe (PfE), and the future of EU funds for Hungary. Zoltán Ranschburg (senior analyst at Republikon Institute), moderated the event.
Answering Zoltán Ranschburg’s question about who won the 2024 EP elections, Györgyi Kocsis explained that the surprising rise of the Tisza Party was an extraordinary event in Hungarian politics. The party's support has been continuously growing, while Fidesz achieved its worst-ever result in an EP election.
Zsolt Kerner argued that there were two winners of the election. On one hand, Fidesz, which remains Europe’s most successful conservative party, retained its dominant role in Hungary. On the other hand, the Tisza Party emerged victorious against the opposition, not Fidesz, becoming the dominant force on the opposition side, a role previously held by the Democratic Coalition (DK).
István Szent-Iványi agreed with the previous speakers and added that this election “killed” the traditional opposition parties, which suffered a heavy defeat.
János Herman remarked that while Fidesz formally won the election, the real standout result was the Tisza Party's growth from zero to seven MEPs. He noted that Fidesz paid a high price for its current position within the EU, and the Tisza Party could either become a great success or a flop, as little is known about their new MEPs and the party itself.
Regarding the Tisza Party’s EPP and Fidesz’s PfE membership, Ranschburg Zoltán asked what impact these affiliations might have on the parties’ domestic goals. István Szent-Iványi explained that Fidesz holds important formal positions in the PfE, but with only 17% of the mandates in the European Parliament, the group lacks the blocking majority. Furthermore, Fidesz encountered significant issues within the PfE, such as its refusal to back a resolution condemning Venezuela’s election process. The true leader within the PfE is Le Pen’s party. For the Tisza Party, EPP membership could be a huge opportunity, but whether they can capitalize on it remains to be seen. Certain political statements from Péter Magyar, such as those regarding Ukraine, could isolate the party.
Zsolt Kerner added that Fidesz's ability to influence European politics was broken when it left the EPP. No positions in the European Council belong to the PfE. If Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, it would be a success for Orbán, as Trump could personally “call” the Hungarian Prime Minister, positioning Orbán as a potential mediator. However, Robert Fico remains Orbán’s only real European ally; he occasionally has to vote along left-wing lines due to his party’s history. For the Tisza Party, it is crucial to emphasize that they are working visibly in Hungary’s interest to avoid being accused of neglecting national interests, as Fidesz has done with other opposition parties.
Györgyi Kocsis noted that the EPP will likely allow the Tisza Party to vote differently than other EPP member parties. Tisza is attacking the Hungarian government on certain domestic issues rather than sensitive foreign policy matters that are vital also for the EU. She also predicted that internal conflicts within the PfE will soon arise, as the group currently operates on empty rhetoric, and it remains unclear what their true political goals are and what binds them together.
In the final part of the conference, the panelists debated Hungary’s prospects for accessing suspended EU funds. Zsolt Kerner stated that Hungary is currently cut off from around 30 billion euros due to EU concerns over corruption. While some funds have been released, the recovery funds remain inaccessible, and programs like Erasmus and Horizon are suspended.
István Szent-Iványi added that the Hungarian government has yet to restore academic freedom, a condition for unlocking further funds. He argued that Hungary’s ability to assert political influence within the EU did not improve during its presidency, and even the 10 billion euros that have been released could be at risk if reforms are not made.
János Herman suggested that EU affairs in Hungary have increasingly become a political battleground thanks to the government’s rhetoric; Orbán now emphasizes that the country can prosper without EU funds. However, European identity is growing stronger, and the Hungarian government needs to acknowledge this trend.
The event was supported by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
Republikon is funded by the European Union. The views and opinions expressed at the event do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. They are not the responsibility of the European Union or the organisation providing the funding.
