Republikon Intézet

"Compared to the election results, the gap between Fidesz and the opposition bloc has decreased, which is not surprising in a period of recession, although Fidesz's advantage over the parties of the late opposition coalition is still confident"  according to the highlights about our latest polls.

The presentation is available here.

 - In October, looking at the total population, Fidesz held 35% of support. In this same group, the strongest opposition party was DK, with 12%. MI Hazánk held 7%, Momentum held 6%, while MSZP held 4%. In the total population, Jobbik had +% of support, while MKKP and LMP had 2%, with Párbeszéd having 1%.
 - In the total population, 28% was uncertain of their party preference.
Those with certain party-preferences are voters who told us which party they would support. Their preferences largely reflect that of the total population. 48% supports Fidesz, while DK is the strongest opposition party with 17%. Mi Hazánk has 10%, Momentum has 8%, while MSZP has 6% of support amongst those with party-preferences. Jobbik has 4%, LMP 3% and MKKP and Párbeszéd 2-2% of their support.
 - We also polled active voters with party preferences: those who would vote if there were elections this Sunday, and also named the party they would support. Amongst them, Fidesz has a 51% support, DK has 16%, 9% goes for Mi Hazánk, 8% breaks for Momentum, while 6% would choose MSZP. Jobbik has 4%, LMP has 3% Párbeszéd has 2% and MKKP has 1% support amongst members of this group.

Half a year has passed since the election, and the tendency to push towards the winner has noticeably decreased, but Fidesz still holds a solid support. Amongst the opposition parties, DK has a strong lead in their support, while the mid-range is dominated by Mi Hazánk. Momentum and MSZP get over the 5% margin required to be in Parliament. Momentum’s support is not that far behind that of Mi Hazánk. Jobbik, LMP, MKKP and Párbeszéd are the smallest of the parties, they all have support well below that of 5%.

Compared to the electoral results, the difference between Fidesz and Opposition has been reduced, which is not surprising, given the recession Hungary is experiencing, but the government still has a considerable advantage to those of the Opposition. Amongst people with party-preference, Fidesz holds 51% support, which is 3% less than their electoral result of 54%. The six parties that joined forces have an aggregated support of 38%, which is 3,5% higher than their electoral results. The difference between the two blocks comes down to 13%, from a near 20% difference in April. This can be explained by the slight growing support of the six parties, and the strengthening of Mi Hazánk.


Methodology: The research was conducted by interviewing 1,000 people by telephone between the 19th and 24th of October. The research is representative of the country's adult population by gender, age, education and type of settlement. Margin of error: +/- 3.2%.



Co-founded by the Europe for Citizens Programme
of the Europen Union