“Power relations between the opposition bloc and the government seem not to have changed at all when compared to the early 2021 data: the united opposition leads by 3% of the total population, whilst they lead by 5% among party voters, according to the Republikon’s research.” - highlights telex.hu, publishing first the findings of the public opinion poll conducted in December by the Republikon Institute.
Key findings
• After a long time, Fidesz has gained popularity among the total population as preferences for the party have shifted from 31% to 33% in December. In this round, DK and Momentum have gained 1-1 percentage points each: whilst DK received 12%, Momentum gained 7% support.
• No meaningful change has occurred in terms of the preferences for Jobbik (8%,) MSZP (5%), LMP (2%) and Mi Hazánk (3%). MKKP and Párbeszéd lost 1-1 percentage points each, now reaching only 2% among the total population compared to the previous 3%. The percentage of those who would vote for another party has remained 2%.
• Fidesz gained 2% popularity among party voters as well, with preferences for the party shifting from 41% to 43%. DK also gained 1 percentage point among party voters, now reaching 16%. Preferences for Momentum (9%), Jobbik (10%) and MSZP (7%) have remained unchanged among party voters. MKKP and Párbeszéd lost 1-1 percentage points each again, with preferences shifting from 4% to 3% for both parties. The popularity of LMP (3%) and Mi Hazánk 4%, among party voters has not changed. 2% of party voters would choose to vote for other parties.
• The proportion of those who are unsure about whom to vote for fell from 26% to 24%.
• To conclude, after several months, support for Fidesz has increased by a total of 2 percentage points. Additionally, whilst the overall support for the united opposition parties has increased by 1 percentage point among the total population, it did not change among party voters. Consequently, in the competition between the united opposition and Fidesz, the opposition leads by 3 percentage points among the total population, and by 5 percentage points among party voters (33-36; 43-48 percent, respectively). Accordingly, Fidesz' popularity has neither been negatively affected by the fourth wave of COVID-19, nor the scandal surrounding Pál Völner (although the latter news may not yet have reached a wider audience at the time of data collection).
• The several month-long declining trends in DK support has been reversed in December, and Momentum was also able to reverse its declining trends after November; both parties could become slightly stronger.
• Jobbik's support has declined since the pre-election, and the party has not yet gained new strength, stagnating.
• Furthermore, relatively little change was found in party preferences amongst the opposition parties in December. DK remains the strongest party in the opposition, followed by Jobbik, Momentum and finally MSZP. In recent months, small parties have also begun to catch up.
• Compared to the data collected in early 2021, power relations between the united opposition and Fidesz are similar to those collected in December. Although Momentum has weakened since January, Jobbik has gained popularity during the year and smaller parties strengthened after the pre-election.
You can find the research HERE.
Methodology: The research was conducted by interviewing 1,000 people by telephone between the 9th and 14th of December. The research is representative of the country's adult population by gender, age, education and type of settlement. Margin of error: +/- 3.2%.
Co-founded by the Europe for Citizens Programme
of the Europen Union