The goal of political polls is often to survey the potential voters of a political party. A follow-up on elections, the survey of the voters of a specific party or block in a post-election period is rarer. The Republikon Institute carried out a large sample research during the autumn of 2022 among the people who voted for the opposition-coalition list (DK-Jobbik-LMP-Momentum-MSZP-Párbeszéd) or the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt during the parliamentary elections of April 3rd, 2022. In the immediate post-election period, public opinion was concerned with the vote proportion of the opposition, which was even lower than prior expectations predicted.
In the following research, we are trying to answer the questions of who the voters of the opposition are, what characterises their social status, what kind of questions they are concerned with and what their expectations are when it comes to politics. We devote special attention to the question of how the opposition voters integrate and whether they form a community or not. The retrospective survey of the opposition voters can help us understand the reasons behind Fidesz winning once again in 2022 and helps us assess future opportunities for the mobilisation of the opposition.
The significance of our research is that it informs us of the political opinions of opposition voters beyond the narrow oppositional public. It is a common phenomenon, in the absence of empirical data, for the perception of political public opinion to be based on a ‘bubble’, on narrow social strata with better access to the public sphere. With a representative opposition sample, however, the discussion about voter expectations can become more nuanced.
The survey was carried out with the personal questioning of 2000 people between the 15th and 30th of September 2022. The participants were Hungarian citizens, who took part in the parliamentary elections of April 2022 and voted for the list of Egységben Magyarországért or MKKP. The survey is representative of the Hungarian opposition voters regarding gender, age, education and settlement type. The margin of error is 2,2%, and the data collection was done by Závecz Research.
Read the whole research HERE.