In February, 33 percent of the total population supports Fidesz, one percent higher than in January. Among those who can select a party, Fidesz’s support increased by two percentage points, as 47 percent would vote for the party. The slow decline since the 2022 election seems to have stopped for now, with Fidesz bouncing back in the first month of the year, and even if within the margin of error, its support has increased. This could easily be linked with the delivery of the 13th month pension starting on 10 February, at the same time as the data was collected, and might have been sufficient to lure some undecided voters who had left the party in the post-election period back to the ruling party. Moreover, despite there being a crisis and Hungary lagging behind in European comparison, Fidesz has conveyed a consistent message on the issue, backed up by a national consultation, while fragmented opposition parties, in terms of their communications, have so far been unable to establish the factual cause-and-effect relation between Fidesz's flawed policies and the raging crisis. These factors may contribute to the reasons why Fidesz's trend of decline has currently come to a halt and accountability from the electorate has not materialized as of now.
DK's support has stagnated over the past month, remaining at 14 percent among the general population and 20 percent among party voters. Their annual address and the recruitment of politicians from other opposition parties in January-February do not seem to have captured voters' imagination, and several opposition party politicians speaking out against DK’s absorptionist strategy during this period may have played a role.
Support for Mi Hazánk has fallen by one percentage point among the total population and two percentage points among party voters. Their decline for the second month in a row puts them closer in support to Momentum and MSZP than to being considered a midsize party in their own right. This month we have seen a general weakening of the right-wing parties, with Jobbik also losing 1 percentage point among the total population and 2 percentage points among party voters, and now standing at 2 and 3 percent, currently on par with Párbeszéd and MKKP. The weakening of the right-wing opposition forces coincides with the strengthening of Fidesz, so it is possible that the two are related, given that the share of undecideds has not decreased, but has increased further, by one percentage point to 31%. Support for Momentum and MSZP has not moved, with both parties at 4-4 percent of the total population and 6-6 percent among party voters. Momentum's focus last month was on the return of Anna Donáth and their paradigm shift, while in MSZP's annual address the emphasis was on unity and social security. For the moment, we cannot observe either negative or positive tendencies, and perhaps when it has become clearer how the parties want to proceed in practice, voters will also be able to give them adequate feedback. Regarding the smaller parties, the balance has been somewhat disturbed; on the one hand, Jobbik has undoubtedly earned the label of small party due to its weakening, while on the other hand, LMP, after slowly gaining strength in recent months, has reached the milestone previously envisaged, when it reached the parliamentary threshold of 5%. Over the past month, LMP has decisively cut itself off from the opposition cooperation, reaffirmed its total commitment to the green cause and, by clarifying its identity and future plans, seems to have managed to overcome the last 1 percentage point shortfall to the parliamentary threshold, standing at 5 percent among party voters. However, this is a change within the margin of error, and there is no evidence of a strengthening in the overall population, with LMP still holding 3 percent support in this group. MKKP remains at 2 percent among the total population and 3 percent among party voters, neck and neck with Párbeszéd, which has gained 1 percentage point among party voters but not among the total population, and Jobbik, which, as explained earlier, has fallen below the parliamentary threshold last month.
Methodology: the survey was conducted by telephone interviews with 1000 people between February 10-15. The survey is representative of the country’s adult population by gender, age, education, and type of residence. Margin of error: +/- 3.2%.
The presentation on the survey's findings can be downloaded here.
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