Key results
• In March, Fidesz-KDNP was at in 34 percent of the total population and 47 percent among party voters. In this quarter, DK still has 14 percent support among the entire population, and 20 percent of party voters would still vote for it. Momentum was able to strengthen the most in the month, by 2-2 percentage points, to 6 and 8 percent. Jobbik remains unchanged at 2 and 3 percent among the total population and party voters. Both the MSZP and the Párbeszéd lost 1 percentage point each in their support in the month, the MSZP stood at 3 and 5, the Párbeszéd at 1 and 2 percent. The LMP did not reach the parliamentary threshold this month, 4 percent of party voters would vote for the party, and 3 percent of the total population still supports them. MKKP stands at 3-3 percent, Mi Hazánk gained 1-1 percentage point, 6 percent of the entire population and 8 percent of party voters would vote for them. The percentage of those who are unsure decreased, from 31 to 28 percent.
• On the anniversary of the 2022 parliamentary election, our Institute examined how the support of the parties developed over the past year. Although the popularity of the parties is constantly changing, and every month has political 'winners' and 'losers', the Hungarian party system has stabilized in the past period, and the relative position of the ruling party and the opposition has changed little. Nevertheless, compared to last April, the political field of force has changed.
• Considering the crisis period of the past year, it is no wonder that Fidesz-KDNP lost the most of its support in one year. Among party voters, they lost 9 percentage points in one year. Regardless, he is still steadily leading the popularity contest, and if parliamentary elections were held now, there is a good chance that he would remain in government.
• The biggest winner of the past year is DK, who are 8 percent stronger among party voters than a year ago. Among other things, this change is due to continuous transfers and consistent media presence.
• Among the parties of the six-party alliance, which has now been dissolved, the LMP was the only one that was able to gain strength in the past year, in addition to the DK. The party was able to define itself as the opposition of the current political elite and was able to strengthen itself as a green alternative party.
• Among the opposition parties, Jobbik is the biggest loser of the past year, it lost its former party leader and prime ministerial candidate, Péter Jakab, in the midst of internal fights, there were also problems within the faction, and it dropped 3 percentage points in the party preference competition in one year. Jobbik is playing on a difficult terrain, as Fidesz-KDNP and Mi Hazánk have also siphoned off voters from the party, and Péter Jakab's one-man project may further alienate former Jobbik voters.
• Párbeszéd is the other party that lost voters in the last year. The party that overperformed in the parliamentary elections was able to found a faction again, but since then there has been a decline in their support. The party took a new direction, with which it apparently lost not only voters, but also some party members, and although the actions in which they participated received media attention, voters identify them not with Párbeszéd, but with Szikra, and Bence Tordai and András Jámbor were the most visible.
• Within the opposition, the strengthening of Mi Hazánk after the elections is also significant, among party voters they are 4 percent stronger than in April 2022. Previously, we set the ceiling among the party's voters at around 10 percent, which Mi Hazánk has not yet been able to jump, and currently three percentage points separate the party from this. One of the reasons for the strengthening of extremist views can be the period of crisis.
• MKKP also strengthened slightly in the past year. Presumably because they were able to recruit some of the voters disappointed in the opposition coalition, however, they would still not reach the parliamentary or EP threshold.
In the coming months, as the campaign period begins, the political power field, which has been stagnant for months, may be significantly reorganized. After examining the balance of party preferences of the past year, we were able to gain an insight into the public life of a country where the government bore the weight of economic and foreign policy failures, and the opposition bore the weight of electoral defeat, which allowed the balance between the two blocs to remain somewhat balanced. The extreme right-wing forces that have strengthened in the crisis and the protest voters and undecideds emerging as a result of the disappointment caused by the new two-thirds have so far kept the political balance in balance, which could easily be overturned next year.
Methodology: The research was conducted by telephone interviewing 1,000 people on March 20-24. between. The research is representative of the country's adult population in terms of gender, age, education and type of settlement. Margin of error: +/- 3.2%.
The main findings of the opinion poll is available HERE.
Co-funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.