• In our analysis, we looked at core Fidesz voters - electors who still have strong ties to the party between two elections - between 2002 and 2021, based on their social background and cultural characteristics, as well as their political opinions.
• It is important to note that the core group of voters considered in the analysis does not completely include Fidesz voters. In the 2022 elections, 39 percent of all eligible voters voted for Fidesz, but the share of core voters in the total population was only 19 percent in 2021. Therefore, the importance of marginal voters in Fidesz's electoral victory in 2022 is greater.
• Consistent with general political sociological trends, main voters have a higher level of education than marginal voters and are not considered to be specifically small-town voters by place of residence.
• Apart from a change in the sex ratio in favor of women and a rising average age, there is no apparent significant change in the Fidesz camp. During the 20 years analyzed, there are only moderate shifts in terms of residence, education, culture, and politics.
• The results suggest that core Fidesz voters express their opinion on policy issues, such as education and health care, based on their general political satisfaction.
• Fidesz's policy of conflict generation and mobilization from above keeps the attention and commitment of sympathizers and core voters rather than influencing their opinions on the issues under scrutiny. In this regard, the achievement of Fidesz in politics is to conform to its camp and hold it together.
• In terms of gender balance, Fidesz had a balanced core voter base in 2002, but by the early 2020s, it had become a distinctly female party.
• Between 2002 and 2021, the average age of Fidesz core voters increased by more than 10 years. According to the 2002 data, their average age was 43, but in 2021 it had risen to 54.6.
• 44,6 percent of Fidesz core voters lived in a village or a commune in 2002, compared to 37.7 percent in 2021. The share of Fidesz supporters in large cities increased by 6 points to 24 percent in 2021 compared to the 2002 results.
• Between 2002 and 2021, the overwhelming majority of Fidesz core voters, 74-82 percent, will have a secondary education. The share of college and university graduates is almost identical in 2002 and 2021, 16.4 and 16.5 percent respectively.
• At the beginning of the timeframe, 26.7 percent of Fidesz supporters went to church at least once a month, at the end 26.9 percent.
• They take a neutral position towards gays and lesbians both at the beginning and at the end of the period.
• Although immigration was not a tangible phenomenon before 2015, Fidesz supporters did not think it was good for the country even before that.
• There is also no significant difference between 2002 and 2021 in terms of trust in the European Parliament, although Fidesz has had many conflicts with the European Parliament over the last decade. According to Fidesz core voters, education and health care have been steadily improving since 2006.
The complete analysis is available HERE.
Co-founded by the Europe for Citizens Programme
of the European Union.