• In June, the support for Fidesz-KDNP decreased for the first time since January. They lost one percentage point among the total population and two percentage points among party voters, currently standing at 33% and 46% support, respectively. Several events in recent times may have influenced the popularity of Fidesz-KDNP, including the wave of education protests, the status law issue, or the record inflation at the EU level. Other potentially divisive issues, such as the end of price controls or the restructuring of the family support system, may not be reflected in these data yet, but they are not expected to be popular measures.
• The DK has lost the momentum that brought them many voters in the past year, and its support has slightly decreased. It now has 12% support among the total population and 16% among party voters. Despite this, it remains the strongest opposition party, but if the decline continues in the coming months, the dominance of DK on the opposition side could become uncertain in the long run.
• Momentum was able to strengthen itself after a slight decline in the previous month. Its support increased by one percentage point to 6% among the total population and by two percentage points to 9% among party voters. It surpassed Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) and became the second strongest opposition party. As we previously reported, Momentum started building its profile around the issue of education and Donáth Anna, and the balance in the following months will determine whether it was a good decision on their part. The current strengthening may be related to their new strategy, but after a strong month, it cannot be conclusively determined.
• The support for Mi Hazánk remains unchanged at 5% among the total population, but it decreased by one percentage point to 7% among party voters. After the rapid growth seen in the second half of 2022, the party's slow decline continues, which has characterised the entire first half of 2023.
• After a quarter of stagnation, the MSZP was able to strengthen itself by one percentage point among the total population, currently standing at 4%. It maintains its place among the qualifying parties with 5% support among party voters. Although the change is within the margin of error, it is worth noting that MSZP has not been able to strengthen itself since the 2022 election, so it is a noteworthy development.
• Last month, we reported that MKKP reached the parliamentary threshold, which had not been seen before according to our previous surveys. In June, not only did they maintain their position as a qualifying party, but they also managed to strengthen themselves by one percentage point among both the total population and party voters. Currently, 5% of the total population and 6% of party voters would vote for the party, which almost matches the result of Mi Hazánk (although they are not targeting the same voters).
• After a few months, LMP was able to reach the parliamentary threshold again, strengthening itself to 5% among both the total population and party voters. It seems that LMP, as a consistent green force, is able to find its voters. Staying on the topic, the recently formed green party, Párbeszéd, was able to strengthen itself for the first time among the total population, from 1% to 2%. It maintains a 2% support among party voters.
• Jobbik is the only party where nothing has changed in the past month. It has 3% support among the total population and 4% among party voters, currently occupying the only non-qualifying position alongside Párbeszéd.
• Overall, the support for parties moved within the margin of error during the month, and the power balance did not shift significantly. However, the gap between Fidesz-KDNP and the opposition parties has slightly narrowed. Currently, among party voters, the ratio is 46% for the governing parties and 41% for the opposition, considering the six opposition parties that cooperated in 2022 but have since taken separate paths.
• It can be seen that the lack of willingness to cooperate in the past year resulted in voters being more divided between the opposition parties, and Hungarian voters began to count on a separate run, as they had no news of a coalition. Thanks to this, the smaller parties absorbed themselves a little and applied for 5 percent. It certainly makes the coordination of the opposition parties even more difficult that the prospect of winning a lone seat in the EP election has become a prospect for many, which may encourage small parties not to cooperate. Of course, this carries with it the danger that in 2024 we will be standing on the day after the double election, with four opposition parties earning 4 percent of votes and a record low EP mandate.
You can find the whole research here
Methodology: The research was conducted through telephone interviews with 1000 participants between June 19-23. The survey is representative based on sex, age, education, and settlement type for the adult population of the country. Margin of error: +/- 3.2%.