The 2022 parliamentary election is expected to be the tightest one of the last more than 10 years. According to opinion polls, just a few weeks prior to the elections, the support for Fidesz-KDNP and Egységben Magyarországért (united opposition) is head-to-head. Due to these results, besides voter mobilization, the role of uncertain voters in elections has recently also been a key talking point more and more frequently. In such tense electoral situations, the not quite homogenous group of uncertain voters can really play a key role, therefore, it is worth analysing, what do we know about this electoral group. In the following analysis of Republikon Institute, based on the opinion polls of the last three months[1] as well as the 5000-strong survey of 2021[2], we examine the voter propensity, demographic characteristics as well as the attitudes toward change of government and government performance among voters without party preference[3]. It is important to note that since 2021 the composition and the opinion of the group of uncertain voters might have changed, therefore, what used to be true regarding this group in 2021, is not necessarily valid for uncertain voters in 2022, thus the data should be interpreted accordingly.
You can read the report HERE.
[1] Our party preference surveys of January, February and March were conducted through telephone interviews of 1000 people between 19-24 January, 18-24 February and 16-18 March, 2022. The surveys are representative to the adult population of the country by gender, age-group, type of settlement and education. Margin of error: + -3,2%.
[2] The survey is representative to the adult population of the country by gender, age, type of settlement and education, based on a sample of 5000 people, was conducted through in-person interviews between 8 January and 4 February 2021. The survey was conducted by Závecz Research.
[3] The group of uncertain is defined as those respondents, who during the party preference survey did not choose a party.