On 8 May 2025, Republikon Institute held a conference entitled “The International Situation is Escalating”, where both Hungarian and international security challenges and global foreign policy events were discussed.
In the first, security policy panel, four experts discussed the situation: István Gyarmati, security policy expert; Ferenc Kaiser, Associate Professor at Hungary's National University of Public Service (NKE); József Kis-Benedek, Doctor of Military Sciences and security policy expert; and Dorka Takácsy, Russia expert. The discussion was moderated by Márton Schlanger, leading analyst at Republikon Institute.
The first panel: prospects for the Russian-Ukrainian war, European defence and global security challenges
When will the Russia-Ukraine war end?
The opening question of the debate was on the expected end of the Russia-Ukraine war. According to József Kis-Benedek, the conflict will not end in the near future. The Russian army is advancing slowly, while the Ukrainian side is defending itself effectively despite limited resources. A longer ceasefire would not be viable either, as shorter ones are not working. Russia has sufficient human resources and is gambling that the US is uncertain of its own strategic objectives.
In line with this, Ferenc Kaiser believed that Russia's goal was to eliminate Ukraine as a sovereign state. This implied complete control of the Black Sea coast. At the same time, once there is peace, Ukraine's position will be strengthened, as it will have greater room for manoeuvre as a state with clear borders. He also pointed out that it is in Europe's vital interest to keep Ukraine “alive”.
Dorka Takácsy stressed the daily threat of war - air strikes were underway in several Ukrainian provinces during the conference - and drew attention to the increasing range of Ukrainian drones, which can now reach the outskirts of Moscow.
Who benefits from mineral agreements?
The next question looked at mineral agreements and their geopolitical implications. According to Kis-Benedek, Ukraine is currently not in a position to be a real bargaining chip, and the United States is finding it difficult to resist its own interests. Takácsy underlined that it is difficult to negotiate with Russia, something that Washington is beginning to see.
Can Europe's defence be united?
The third main question of the panel focused on the development of European defence capabilities. Ferenc Kaiser said Trump was right to criticise Europe for its low defence spending. But now there seems to be a turnaround: Germany, for example, is now spending more on defence than the UK and France. In the future, an “inner core” could emerge within the EU, committed to deeper integration and common defence - but Hungary is likely to be left out.
István Gyarmati said that although the US has hundreds of foreign military bases, only a few of these are in Europe. In terms of defence spending, Europe is defending itself: the EU's annual defence budget is €350 billion, while the US has “only” $100 billion in Europe.
Dorka Takácsy pointed out that while defence spending is increasing, a large part of the public is not willing to fight for their country - a serious contradiction. But Gyarmati said that public opinion can be changed, as Roosevelt managed to do before the Second World War.
What conflicts in the world today should we watch out for?
According to Kis-Benedek, a world war is unlikely, current conflicts are local and will not escalate into global ones. However, Kaiser pointed out that there are many conflicts going on that the world barely notices - such as the civil war in Myanmar. He described Putin as a brutal but rational leader who would not attack NATO. He also drew attention to the role of the media: although climate change is causing more human casualties, people are more afraid of war.
Takácsy stressed that the conflict in Ukraine could set a precedent: if Russia wins without consequences, other powers such as China could be tempted to attack small countries, such as Taiwan.
What should the average person pay attention to in defence budgets?
The final part of the discussion was about transparency in military spending. According to István Gyarmati, the average person cannot and should not be able to navigate military budgets - they are incomparable. Kaiser stressed that Europe has been underfunding its military for decades and is now on a forced path. US leadership is simply due to huge spending.
Kis-Benedek criticised the state of the Hungarian defence: tanks are appearing at village fairs instead of training exercises, and air defence coverage is not satisfactory.
Concluding thought: the situation in Hungary after Ukraine's reconstruction
Responding to a question from the audience, Ferenc Kaiser stressed that as a consequence of current Hungarian foreign policy, when the time comes to rebuild Ukraine, Hungarian companies will be at a disadvantage in the competition for investment.
The second panel: US economic policy, the EU and Hungary
The second panel included Zsolt Kerner, 24.hu journalist and foreign policy expert; Tamás Magyarics, historian and former ambassador; Gergely Prőhle, diplomat, former state secretary and museum director; and Péter Balázs, economist, diplomat and former foreign minister. The panel discussion was moderated by Andrea Virág, Strategic Director of Republikon.
Features and consequences of Trump's foreign policy
Most speakers agreed that Donald Trump's foreign policy continues to be dominated by a business and transactional approach. According to Gergely Prőhle, although the current US foreign policy is ideologically driven, it is ultimately the interest-based economic policy that will prevail. Péter Balázs, on the other hand, believes that Trump has promised quick solutions but has instead created chaos in international relations.
Zsolt Kerner pointed out that Trump now has a well-established base and that there is less and less headwind within the Republican Party. On foreign policy, the debate between classical Republicans and the MAGA movement continues, but the security approach seems to dominate, especially because of China.
Continuity and conflics in US economic policy
Tamás Magyarics pointed out that there is a surprising amount of continuity between Trump's and Biden's economic policies - especially in the domestic protection of industry. US patriotic economic policy is aimed at retaining the rust belt voters and also has an impact on international trade, especially through the deterioration of relations with the EU.
According to Péter Balázs, the current impact of tariff wars is more psychological, but in the longer term it could have serious economic consequences by disrupting global trade chains.
US-EU relations and the situation in Hungary
The experts agreed that a deterioration in the US-EU relationship could be directly detrimental to Hungary - especially through the automotive industry. Tamás Magyarics noted that US distrust of Europe is not new, having existed since the Second World War. The Trump administration explicitly sees the EU as a rival.
Gergely Prőhle pointed out that in the case of Hungary, the success of the theory of connectivity depends largely on the country's international perception, which is not positive in the case of Viktor Orbán. Péter Balázs was sharply critical of the prime minister's connectivity strategy, saying that he considers it an illusion, and criticised his gambler's attitude; betting everything on Trump on whom he is now trying to build domestic propaganda.
Opportunities and limitations of Hungarian foreign policy
Zsolt Kerner stressed that the most favourable foreign policy environment for Hungary would be if more and more allies would guarantee its security and free trade - but this does not fit with Trump's foreign policy. At the same time, this situation could give the Hungarian government political room for manoeuvre, especially in managing the conflict with the EU.
