The emergence of the Tisza Party has made the question of opposition change one of the most decisive issues in current Hungarian domestic politics. Of course, there is nothing new under the sun, in a sense that we were already talking about opposition change in 2021 in the context of primary elections, the outcome of which saw half of the opposition representatives elected to parliament in 2022 being newcomers. Not to mention that Péter Márki-Zay, with the message of opposition change, was able to become the prime ministerial candidate as an outsider. However, there was no change in the party system until the Tisza Party achieved close to 30% in the 2024 European Parliament elections, as it siphoned off a large number of voters from the traditional opposition parties, and then it set its goal to compete “one-on-one” with Fidesz -KDNP in 2026, without any coalition. This meant a great move towards a two-party system; undoubtedly, the long-term effects of the 2013 reform to the electoral system are now coming to fruition, which at the time allowed Fidesz-KDNP (as a mass party) to strengthen its position. The 2022 opposition alliance and primaries can also be considered part of the “two-party-ization” process, as it essentially created a two-party-like electoral situation in 2022. Nevertheless, we are still far from a two-party system. Although Our Homeland is increasingly aligning itself with Fidesz, it remains distinct and would still enter parliament, with several opposition parties maintaining factions in the National Assembly. It would be in the best interest of the Tisza Party to unite the “other side” under its banner. The transformation into a two-party system brings both advantages and disadvantages, and political scientists identify several “side-effects” of this process, such as the necessity of parties to moderate, the increasing politicization of media, or even the so-called “death” of pluralism. A particularly interesting situation has emerged in Hungary, where the three strongest parties (party alliances), Fidesz-KDNP, Tisza Party and Our Homeland, all shine in different shades of right-wing conservatism, while left-wing and liberal-identity political forces seem to be in decline. In the latest research by Republikon, we asked respondents whether they think it is important for Hungarian politics to remain pluralistic and retain a left-wing bloc, or whether they prefer a complete shift and a right-wing profile.
The whole analysis can be read through this link.
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