Easy come, easy go

Analysis of the Republikon Institute


Easy come, easy go - Analysis

Republikon Intézet

"Republikon Institute has also drawn attention to an important lesson for Peter and Paul Magyar for the 2026 parliamentary elections. The example of Our Homeland and the Dog Party shows that high support generated by insufficiently engaged voters can be easily lost. It is also a question of the size of the committed core voter base of the new Tisza, without a clear ideology and worldview." - HVG reports about our latest analysis.

In our analysis, based on the election data of the National Election Office and previous polls conducted by the Republican Institute, we examined the election results of the Our Country and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party, with a special focus on the impact of the emergence of the Tisza Party on the parties' performance.

Main findings of the analysis:

• The election results seem to confirm a phenomenon already revealed by opinion polls, according to which many of the potential voters of Mi Hazánk and MKKP may have defected to the Tisza Party: support for the two parties plummeted with the emergence of Péter Magyar, and a comparison of votes cast on county lists and in counties in the European Parliament makes it even clearer that the two parties performed much worse in elections where Tisza was on the ballot paper.

• That said, Mi Hazánk and the MKKP are the only parties among the parties that will be on the list in 2019 and 2024 that were able to achieve better results than five years ago, and even improved their results in the 2022 parliamentary elections. The "Peter the Hungarian phenomenon" has had a draining effect on the percentage of the parties' core voters, and Mi Hazánk and MKKP can see the fact that these groups have increased, albeit slightly, over the past two years as a positive.

• Although the Tisza Party can now celebrate its European Parliament election result and indeed an unprecedented success story, looking ahead to 2026, an important lesson for Péter Magyar is that support generated by insufficiently engaged voters can be deceptive and easily lost.

The analysis is available in full at this link.

(Sourceof phtos: Jelen, Index)