January used to be a favourite month for politicians and political pundits because, after a long year, "nothing ever happened" in politics this month. Politicians used to take their holidays before the parliamentary season and the Prime Minister's holiday in India would certainly not have been a curiosity, at most it would have compromised the identity of the 'poor fellow', an illusion that has now been shattered anyway. Now, however, Hungarian politics is defined by constant campaigning and stalemate, with only the intensity changing as the elections approach. We have no doubt that the 2026 elections will continue to see intense electoral campaigning in Hungarian society, and we expect the political campaigning machine to kick into high gear as early as this year. The year has also started strongly in terms of global politics, with the inauguration of President Donald Trump in the United States, who assured the world on his first day in office that there would be no let-up in the years to come. The latest poll by Republikon, by the way, was conducted on the day of Trump's inauguration, although it is not believed that this directly influenced the balance of power between the Hungarian parties.
Main findings of the research:
- In January, the Tisza Party's lead over Fidesz-KDNP continued to grow within the margin of error. In the overall population, Péter Magyar's party leads by 3 percent, with 26 percent support compared to Fidesz-KDNP's 23 percent. Among party voters, 37 percent would vote for Tisza, while 32 percent would vote for Fidesz-KDNP. The rate is 39-32, a difference of 7 percentage points among party voters who are certain to vote. Tisza has a confident lead, but its growth rate has slowed. The governing parties have not been able to catch up, but it is certainly not in their interest to consolidate the advantage of Péter Magyar in the long run. It is precisely because of the permanence of the campaign that the political contest has become a test of endurance, and 2025 will test the endurance of the Tisza Party, a party in its infancy but which has achieved considerable success. Fidesz is never the strongest between two elections, although it is undoubtedly the weakest now after a long time. The opposition has always had problems with burning out just when the governing parties were getting stronger, Fidesz had a better sense of rhythm in this sense. Therefore, an important question is how the Tisza Party can retain voters' attention and enthusiasm.
- The balance of power between DK and Mi Hazánk shifted by a margin of error at the beginning of the year, with DK marginally ahead of Mi Hazánk in January, taking third place in the party preference rankings. In the total population, the two parties have 5-5 percent support, among party voters’ 7-7 percent would vote for them, and if filtered for party voters who are certain voters, DK would get 8 percent of the votes and Mi Hazánk 7 percent. It is difficult to predict the composition of the 2026 parliament based on list strength alone, but both DK and Mi Hazánk could win valuable seats, even seats needed for a parliamentary majority. These prospects are not favourable for a change of government or for DK, as Mi Hazánk is a much more obvious coalition partner for Fidesz-KDNP than DK is for Tisza. If the parliament looked like the party preferences are now, the only coalition alternative for Tisza would be the Dog Party getting into parliament.
- At the moment, the Dog Party would barely get into parliament, with 4% of the total population voting for the party, 6% of party voters and 5% of party voters who are sure to vote. Compared to previous times, MKKP voters’ willingness to participate in elections has increased recently and it would be a huge success for them if they were to get into parliament in the party system that now seems to be emerging, they could even find themselves in government, although they are far from it as of yet. After the victory in Budapest's 12th district, despite a poor showing in the EP elections, the organisation, hitherto considered a joke party, has become a tangible factor and could be a parliamentary party in 2026 if it can overcome the myth that votes cast for the Dog Party are wasted votes, and get its supporters to the ballot box.
- Jobbik gained strength within the margin of error in January, with 2 percent support among the total population, 3 percent among party voters and 2 percent among those who are sure voters. The only voters among whom it has not strengthened, then, are those most likely to vote in the next election.
- Momentum deteriorated within the margin of error in January and is neck and neck with Jobbik in the total population and among party voters, at 2 and 3 percent respectively, but it is still ahead of Jobbik among sure voters at 3 percent.
- Support for the smaller parties has not changed significantly in the first month of the year, and the share of undecided voters has risen by 4 percentage points to 28%.
The whole research is available through this link
Party preferences, Magyar Péter, Fidesz, Tisza, 2026 elections, MKKP, Momentum, Mi Hazánk, poll, DK