Hungarian voters will go to the polls again in a year, on 9 June 2024, when local elections and European Parliament elections will be held simultaneously in Hungary. Many things could change until then, including who will run for office in the election. Although the official campaigning is yet to begin, both the parties and the voters have started to tune in to the coming, presumably intense campaign. Our Institute has examined how Hungarian voters feel about the EP party lists and their presumed list leaders, and we also attempted to assess the parties; growth potential. Clearly, this recent, one-off measurement of popularity can not determine how well candidates will perform in 2024. The campaign has barely begun, and we do not know for sure (although we can guess) the candidates and alliances that the parties will field. Therefore, in this research, besides different parties’ committed voter bases, we have also tried to gauge the size of their potential voter bases. We will attempt to give a simple account of the scope for manoeuvre, the growth potential of individual parties and list leaders; what they can build on during the campaign, and which voters they might be able to mobilise. Our research demonstrates that due to voters’ high propensity to switch between parties within the opposition, any of these parties may be able to perform unexpectedly well, with a well-targeted campaign and a strong candidate.
The complete analysis is available HERE.
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