Since the Hungarian political transition, the electoral results in the capital and in the countryside have tended to differ, with leftist and liberal parties usually doing better in Budapest than in other parts of the country. That was strongly demonstrated in the last elections. In the analysis below, we show the chances of the governing parties and the opposition coalition in Budapest in the 2022 parliamentary elections and examine the conclusions that can be drawn from the results of previous elections for this year's parliamentary elections.
The April 2022 election will be the first parliamentary election since the Fidesz-KDNP victory in 2010 in which the main question will not be whether the current governing parties will win a two-thirds majority in parliament, but whether they will maintain their majority in the house. For the first time in a while, the opposition is in a position to have a real chance of changing government, thanks to the united run-off. Opinion polls show that the number of voters for the governing parties and of the united opposition is roughly at the same level. Although the outcome of the April elections is at the national level, previous elections and polling data suggest that the opposition has a good chance in the April elections in Budapest.
The full analysis is available here.
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