Summary of the analysis
The first by-election since the appearance of Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party was held in the Tolna 2 individual constituency for a seat in parliament. Although the polls show that their support is similar to that of Fidesz, or even slightly higher, the party did not put forward a candidate.
The stakes of the election are no longer for one of the big parties to show that they are the strongest, but rather whether a weakening Fidesz or the long-standing opposition parties - which have been close to or below the threshold for a long time - can show that they are not as affected by Tisza as the public opinion polls suggest.
The district has been heavily pro-Fidesz in the past, so Krisztina Csibi's victory in the absence of Tisza is no surprise at all. Csibi was helped not only by Fidesz's local entrenchment, but also by the fact that her person was linked to former district representative Árpád Potápi. In addition, Csibi also visited all settlements of the constituency, where she managed to establish a relationship with non-urban voters who make up about 60% of the constituency's population.
Although several of Csibi's opponents are better known politicians, the Potápi factor, previous networking and of course Fidesz's support left no doubt about her victory.
Although it is difficult to discern how much of the result was due to Csibi and how much of it to the party logo, but compared to her opponents, Csibi's campaign was the strongest.
The lack of Tisza's candidacy, low turnout and the specific terrain mean that it is not worth drawing long-term conclusions about national politics.
The entire analysis can be read here in English.
Republikon is funded by the European Union. The views and opinions expressed at the event do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. They are not the responsibility of the European Union or the organisation providing the funding.
