This autumn, public opinion polls have drawn great attention. The primary reason for this is that for the first time in many years, a single party has managed to surpass the governing parties in popularity. Across the entire research market, it can be stated that the Tisza Party's disadvantage is at least diminishing, and in many cases, its popularity now rivals or even surpasses that of the Fidesz-KDNP coalition. Meanwhile, the government is working overtime to create the financial and material conditions for pre-election spending in 2026, to tarnish the country's reputation with embarrassing diplomatic moves and to craft a communication strategy for the 2026 election campaign. The latter activity saw Fidesz-KDNP testing a new campaign method, which could be most simply described as public agitation: Tamás Menczer was sent to disrupt Péter Magyar's campaign event. Previously, such a task would have been deemed below the rank of a communications director or state secretary. However, recently, senior Fidesz-KDNP and government officials have also been mobilized, traveling across the country and giving interviews. Republikon's December party preference survey was conducted amid this heightened atmosphere, with data collected during and shortly after the Menczer-Magyar encounter.
Main findings:
- In December, the Tisza Party overtook Fidesz-KDNP. Tisza has 27% support among the total population, while the governing coalition stands at 25%, a 2-point lead for Péter Magyar's party. Last month, Fidesz-KDNP led by two points, but its support has fallen by 1 percentage point, while Tisza gained 3 points, reversing the situation. Among party voters, Tisza leads by three points, with 35% compared to Fidesz-KDNP's 32%. When filtering for likely voters, for the first time, Fidesz-KDNP no longer has the most active supporters, so the Tisza Party has an even more significant 6-point lead among sure party voters, with 37% compared to Fidesz-KDNP's 31%. Although data collection was conducted during and shortly after the Menczer-Magyar encounter, the decline in Fidesz-KDNP's support cannot be attributed solely to this incident. Whatever the cause, the decline is significant, with a 4-point drop among party voters and a 6-point decline among sure voters.
- The third strongest party is Mi Hazánk, its support among the total population is 6% (↑1), among party voters and sure party voters it is 8% (↑1). In the changing Hungarian party system, with two competing political formations of similar strength, the role of the other parliamentary parties changes as well, every smaller faction is a potential kingmaker. Given the growing proximity between Mi Hazánk and Fidesz-KDNP this option must not be overlooked.
- DK is in the fourth place, its support has been unchanged since October. In every aspect of the analysis, it is 1 percentage point behind Mi Hazánk, 5% of the total population, and 7-7% of party voters and sure party voters would vote for the party. For DK to be kingmaker in the parliament, a Tisza-DK agreement would be needed, which currently seems unlikely, given that Péter Magyar builds his politics upon the opposition against Gyurcsány and Orbán.
- As of now the Two-Tailed Dog Party would get into parliament as well. Although we know that their supporters’ willingness to vote is historically low, the party is currently on the threshold of entering parliament with 4% support among the total population, 5% among party voters, and 5% (↑2) among sure party voters. Among sure voters, they have strengthened by two percentage points over the past month, placing the Two-Tailed Dog Party in a position to enter parliament. Based on current figures, they could even provide a narrow parliamentary majority for the Tisza Party against a Fidesz-KDNP-Mi Hazánk alliance.
- Momentum stands at 3% among the total population, 4% among party voters, and also 4% (↓1) among sure party voters. Currently, it would not get into parliament. The party's visibility has diminished in recent months, but in terms of values and political perspective, it is perhaps the most compatible opposition party with Tisza. Therefore, if it manages to enter parliament, it could hold valuable parliamentary seats in 2026.
- MSZP is the last party above 1%, its support is unchanged since October: 2% among the total population and 3-3% among party voters and sure party voters.
- Párbeszéd and LMP are at 1% among the total population, party voters and sure party voters as well.
- Jobbik holds 1% support among the total population and party voters, and 2% among sure party voters.
- The proportion of undecided voters decreased from 29% to 24% over the past month, with these voters primarily joining the Tisza Party.
The complete study is available through this link.
momentum, Fidesz, Tisza, MKKP, Mi Hazánk, DK, 2024, public opinion polls, Párbeszéd, MSZP, Jobbik