On May 5, 2026, the Republikon Institute held a conference titled "The International Situation Intensifies – But Where Should Hungarians Stand?", where experts analyzed the current international landscape and Hungary's role within it. The discussion was moderated by Andrea Virág, Strategic Director of the Republikon Foundation.
Panelists:
- Dániel Hegedűs: Vice-Director of the Institute für Europäische Politik
- Zsolt Kerner: Political journalist at 24.hu
- Gergely Prőhle: Program Director of the John Lukacs Institute at NKE
- Máté Szalai: Associate Professor at the Department of International Relations, Corvinus University of Budapest
The first round of questions focused on which international conflict the participants consider most decisive today. According to Zsolt Kerner, a common feature of these clashes is that they stem from disruptions in world trade and global challenges. Dániel Hegedűs observed that the international order based on legal regulations has weakened significantly, with the founders of the old order now playing a part in this erosion, while the economic significance of the Western world has decreased substantially. Gergely Prőhle added that struggles for "living space" (Lebensraum) will become dominant in the future, further fueled by demographic and climatic changes, making tension permanent in the Middle East. In his view, a kind of civilizational struggle is also unfolding between East and West. Máté Szalai highlighted that the crisis has existed for a long time; it is only that the process of questioning trust in the international order reached Europe later.
Following this, Andrea Virág asked the experts about the United States' role and activity in the Middle East. Dániel Hegedűs explained that when international law is violated, a key question is how the legal personality of individual states is recognized. Participants pointed to the shifting attitude of the American administration and rising domestic political frustration, agreeing that foreign policy is increasingly becoming a tool for domestic politics. They believe that after identifying problems, concrete proposals are needed: in America, industrial development is the most urgent issue, while in Europe, it is the lack of defense capabilities. According to Máté Szalai, the decisive factor in the Middle East is not religious or ethnic conflict but the shift in the balance of power; regional powers are attempting to create a counterweight to Iranian influence. In his view, American anti-Iran policy has been consistent for several cycles; following the events in Venezuela, a rapid regime change was hoped for, which ultimately did not materialize. Zsolt Kerner noted that American foreign policy is extremely complex, and often differing directives clash even within the government itself.
The conversation also touched upon the role of the war in Ukraine, which became a prominent topic before the elections, though it was often discussed through a domestic political lens while ignoring actual facts. According to Zsolt Kerner, Ukraine did not become a casualty of the shift in international attention; it has raised its military production capacities and drone technology to a world-class level while securing new support. In contrast, for Russia, this is a desperate and long war that threatens its economic stability and alliance system, leaving its future outlook bleaker than that of Ukraine, which is striving for EU membership. Dániel Hegedűs believes that only significant Russian domestic political changes can bring a turnaround; currently, a strategic stalemate has developed where Russia’s goal is to break the unity of NATO. Gergely Prőhle suggested there is a high probability that the conflict will remain "preserved" over the long term.
In closing, the moderator asked the panelists about Hungary's situation and future expectations. Máté Szalai emphasized that it is crucial for Hungary to take its share in the crisis management affecting the West and the European Union. In his view, public discourse has obscured the fact that we are in a "gray zone" between peace and war; therefore, it is necessary to prepare for the worst-case scenarios to better avoid them. Dániel Hegedűs projected an improvement in Hungarian–Polish political and Hungarian–Croatian economic relations, noting that while the relationship with Ukraine may not necessarily change radically, the new government's negotiating position could remain strong. Gergely Prőhle argued that it is in Hungary’s fundamental interest to settle relations with the EU and NATO, which does not preclude professional conflicts in the future. Finally, Zsolt Kerner added that for the new government, the capacity for compromise will be essential for effective interest representation within the Union.